How the TRNC can survive the economic fallout of the pandemic
Friday 19th February, 2021.
Headlines read- “Health Minister Ali Pilli Dismissed from Post by Prime Minister”- leading to all sorts of reactions across social media. It was hard to say which was more triggering; the dismissal of the health minister, the name recommended for his replacement; Transport Minister Ünal Üstel or both.
Minister Ali Pilli is one of the minsters who retained their portfolios from the previous government and cabinet led by former prime minister and now President- Mr. Ersin Tatar. It was hoped that his experience and health qualifications would be enough to steer the country through what has now become a really difficult time, economically at least. Perhaps, it was not enough and the eventual dismissal of the health minster is yet another indication what the future might hold in the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus.
Beyond think pieces and statements calling him “a hero”; One of the things ex-Minister Ali Pilli is accused of, at least on social media is that his “lockdowns” have crippled the private sector, businesses have been shut down and incomes lost. In March 2020, the TRNC swiftly enacted a lockdown as soon as the index case was diagnosed to protect the local population. The lockdown as hailed as a success and the TRNC became the only country in the world at the time who had won the war against Covid19 but the cost of that victory was high. The lockdown lasted 7 months, leaving a crippled economy in its wake. Data from the Turkish chamber of commerce show that close to 1,000 business have shut down indefinitely and nearly 10,000 jobs have been lost, perhaps more. After this, variations of curfews and restrictions have been applied to stem the now rising infection numbers culminating in a second lockdown. It is unclear if the already crippled economy would survive this.
Covid19 is known for escalating and aggravating pre-existing medical conditions but this phenomenon, as we have seen around the world, does not apply only to medical conditions but to economic and national problems as well. It is therefore my personal opinion that the lockdowns were not the cause of the economic problems in the TRNC but if we look at the analysis closely, we can avoid a repeat of history. Here goes:
Before the pandemic- 2019 and early 2020, the TRNC economy appeared to be doing well and growing. This, in my opinion was an illusion masking the real symptoms of a growing problem, if you may- a pre-existing condition.
1. The civil service and infrastructure were stretched thin- sectors from healthcare to the police were feeling the burden of a growing population with limited resources. International students complained endlessly of waiting lines getting longer, tests being referred to private hospitals/ clinics despite paying premiums alongside their resident permits annually and being charged for it by some universities. These issues were mostly ignored and those who could afford it, slowly and quietly began to move to private hospitals for better care.
2. Communication from the govt was poor- from updates on the price on resident permits to general information. It was usually half-hearted and poorly done. VOIS Cyprus sometimes attempts to fill in the gaps for international students.
3. International student enrollment began to drop annually- Following the poor treatment of international students on the island, the general consensus was that students were being treated as “cash cows”. The Chairman of the Nigerians in Diaspora commission (NIDCOM) also released a press statement about the treatment of Nigerians in the TRNC. Even though the content of this statement was debunked, the damage had been done. Beyond some press statements and photo-ops at the ministry of Education, nothing was done, not even the proposed committee comprising of international students’ representatives and the ministry of education with a clear action plan. Interestingly, headlines also reported the foreign workers felt the same way. There was no investigation as to why enrollments were falling, no committee to propose solutions and nothing was done.
There are merely a few of the pre-existing conditions in the TRNC before the pandemic and eventual lockdown which have become terribly aggravated and may escalate if we do not stop to fix these problems from the root source as opposed to the present method of patching and palliatives.
So, in all of this what do I propose?
While the country battles Covid19, the economy and our collective future hangs in the balance, the country must rethink itself if we must survive the pandemic and onwards into the future. Here are a few ideas;
1. A National Strategy Conference: I recommend a national conference, held once every year and beginning this year preferably in the month of March 2021 and held online. Strategically focused, it should be inclusive and representative of all parties (gender-wise, as well as including citizens, student representatives and foreigners alike) to break down these issues across sectors, share ideas, strategy and shape policy about nation-building with a path to execution and implementation. It is weird that despite being the single largest GDP earner and economic driver, international students have NO representation or say in how policies that affects them are drafted and/or implemented.
2. Strengthening healthcare and social infrastructure: Several international students study medicine, pharmacy and such like in the TRNC. It is unclear why the government has not hired directly from the universities and integrate them into the system even as precious lives are lost. Nationalistic mindsets have no place in 2021 especially as there are lives on the line if the TRNC intends to survive into the future. Several countries around the world have adopted a national policy that allows health professionals to be integrated into the national healthcare system in exchange for work permits and/or permanent residence permits. The government could look into those policies and adapt them for use. This same model could be adopted to solve the government’s poor communication and other sectors.
3. Funding the government: The figures in the 2021 budget are worrying as they show that it has become almost impossible to meet public expenditures which have been in shortfall for some time but this isn’t news to anyone who has been in the country since at least 2019. The signs, like the other pre-existing conditions have been present for a while now. But maybe there is a (small) way out and hopefully the government listens this time and makes required policy changes- Visa laws in most countries are not set up to deal with this new class of modern nomads who are living and working remotely around the world. But that’s finally starting to change globally. Over 20 countries and counting now have at least one version or the other of a nomad visa with more of them renewable and leading to either a permanent residence after at least 5 years or citizenship. The TRNC can tow this path to save the economy while boosting local businesses at the same time and here is how:
Phase 1: Remove the (long) restrictions on immigrants (including international students) and allow them run businesses on the Island regardless of nationality. It is not clear why registering/ running a business is so difficult in 2021 when visa applications and approvals are now done entirely online. Also, statistics show that at least 26% of business started by immigrants are more likely to succeed than others. Immigrants generally bring new ideas, culture and solutions to doing things. I also recommend that immigrants (including international students) who have been on the island for at least 5 years be issued permanent residence permits immediately their current permits expire. Initially, it would appear that the government would lose money if the number of temporary residence permit applications drop but on the contrary, this gives the government an initial boost in revenue from payments for permanent resident fees, increases revenues via future taxes for the government from the businesses established and/or income while attracting more students to the island all at the same time.
Phase 2: Once the phase one is completed and the handling of the Covid19 cases, quarantine, tracing, treatment and vaccination in the country has been stepped up (or else this effort will fail on the long term and the local pop will suffer greatly for it), The TRNC can then open this up to the outside world with terms and conditions in place. These steps would create more wealth for the government and the residents while overcoming the negative economic effects of Covid19.
Like it was at the beginning, so it is now. The signs are there and Covid (especially the new variant) will escalate our pre-existing conditions further. We can roll up our sleeves and get to work to protect our future or keep patching things up and throwing palliatives at it.
It is a choice we have to make.
